Diverging Demographic Destinies: A Fifty Year Perspective
In one of my earliest posts to Fifty Year Perspective, I laid out the straightforward logic of forecasting population. Using historical data for births, longevity and migration, the demographer can extend past trends forward while taking account of any developments that are expected to alter those trends.
The United Nations has released World Population Prospects 2017 with estimates through 2015 and projections to 2100. In the next 50 years world population is projected to increase by 41%. The projections are based on a median fertility assumption.
There are stark differences among continents and countries in the increases of their populations and their age distributions. The African continent is expected to account for two-thirds of the world’s population growth, with its population increasing by 166% between 2015 and 2065; Middle African countries expect a 229% increase. Other continents are projected to grow at much slower rates – all under 50% with the exception of Europe, which is projected to decrease in population by 7%.
Asia has a mixture of growing and shrinking population regions. Overall the continent is projected to grow by 18%, but Western Asia, which includes the Middle East, is projected to grow 69%, and South-Central Asia (including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan) projects a 34% growth rate. Eastern Asia, including China, Japan North and South Korea, projects a population loss of 11%. Similarly, Northern Europe is projected to have a 17% growth in population, and Western Europe 3% growth, while the population of the continent as a whole decreases. Worldwide, 40 countries already have declining populations.
Shrinking populations correlate with fewer persons age 15-64 in the labor force to support services for persons over 65, the so-called old-age dependency ratio. The world average ratio of people aged 15-64 for every person 65 or over was 7.9 in 2015. That is projected to decrease to 3.4 in 2065. The ratio for Africa is projected to decrease from 16.1 to 8.1, still above the 2015 world average. The ratio is expected to fall below 2.0 in Eastern Asia and Southern and Western Europe. Those areas face decreased economic growth and reduced expenditures on public goods such as infrastructure, not to mention pensions.
The portion of population under five years of age is shrinking rapidly as birth rates fall across the world. Figures for that age group in 2015 were as high as 18% in Middle Africa and as low as 5% in parts of Europe. All are projected to decrease in the next 50 years, to around 10% on the African continent and 4-6% elsewhere. As China learned when its one-child policy reduced births precipitously, the future work force is inadequate to maintain economic expansion. To counter this trend, some countries have turned to parental leave of a year or more and subsidized child care to expand their work forces.
Increasing longevity is acutely evident in the portion of world population at the other end of the spectrum. A larger population age 85 and over can expect rising health care costs. Less than 1% of the world’s population was in that age group in 2015. By 2065 it is projected to increase fourfold to 2.9%. The European continent will have the highest proportion of population 85 and over at 6.8%, and Africa the lowest at 0.6%. At sub-continent level, Japan stands out with its projected 12.6% population 85 and over. The impact on health care expenditures for this increasing age group will be yet another challenge for populations with shrinking work forces. Who will cover these expenditures – government, corporations, children of retirees or the retirees themselves – will likely continue to vary by country.
These variances among continents and countries in demographic futures raise opportunities as well as challenges. Prominent among possible policy options is migration policy. The UN projections used a “normal” migration assumption, using past international migration estimates and consideration of the policy stance of each country, plus recent fluctuations in migration numbers, refugee flows and labor flows. Migration policy represents a country’s most direct opportunity to address a shrinking work force, and the most controversial.
| United Nations Population Estimates and Projections 2015-2065 | |||||||||
| Region | Old Age Dependency Ratio |
% Population Under 5 |
% Population 85+ |
Total Population in thousands |
% Population Change | ||||
| 2015 | 2065 | 2015 | 2065 | 2015 | 2065 | 2015 | 2065 | 2015-2065 | |
| WORLD | 7.9 | 3.4 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 7,383,009 | 10,409,808 | 41 |
| AFRICA | 16.1 | 8.1 | 16.1 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1,194,370 | 3,181,161 | 166 |
| ASIA | 9.0 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 4,419,898 | 5,230,800 | 18 |
| Australia/New Zealand | 4.4 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2 | 5.5 | 28,414 | 42,340 | 49 |
| EUROPE | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 740,814 | 689,365 | -7 |
| South America | 8.5 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 416,436 | 500,185 | 20 |
| Central America | 10.4 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 172,635 | 238,890 | 38 |
| Eastern Africa | 17.8 | 8.0 | 16.2 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 399,458 | 1,124,332 | 181 |
| Middle Africa | 17.7 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 10.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 153,743 | 505,458 | 229 |
| Northern Africa | 11.9 | 4.3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 225,136 | 404,451 | 80 |
| Southern Africa | 13.2 | 4.6 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 63,420 | 90,905 | 43 |
| Western Africa | 19.0 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 352,614 | 1,056,015 | 199 |
| Eastern Asia | 6.5 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 6.3 | 1,635,150 | 1,454,308 | -11 |
| South-Central Asia | 12.1 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1,892,013 | 2,529,274 | 34 |
| South-Eastern Asia | 11.4 | 3.3 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 634,610 | 811,277 | 28 |
| Western Asia | 12.4 | 3.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 258,124 | 435,942 | 69 |
| Eastern Europe | 4.7 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 293,244 | 241,974 | -17 |
| Northern Europe | 3.5 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 103,097 | 121,009 | 17 |
| Southern Europe | 3.3 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10.2 | 152,441 | 129,359 | -15 |
| Western Europe | 3.3 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 192,032 | 197,023 | 3 |
| China | 7.5 | 1.9 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 1,397,029 | 1,248,118 | -11 |
| India | 11.7 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1,309,054 | 1,675,744 | 28 |
| Japan | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 127,975 | 99,543 | -22 |
| United Kingdom | 3.5 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 65,397 | 77,590 | 19 |
| Canada | 4.2 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 35,950 | 47,447 | 32 |
| Mexico | 10.2 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 125,891 | 167,250 | 33 |
| United States | 4.5 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 319,929 | 412,055 | 29 |