Japan and China
When Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke to the World Economic Forum on January 23, 2019, he addressed Japan’s shrinking population and workforce. Promoting what he called “womenomics,” he said, has raised the female labor force participation rate to an all-time high of 67%. The number of people over 65 still actively working has increased by two million. He also reported on legislation that will encourage as many as 340,000 skilled workers to come to Japan over the next five years. And he announced Japan’s commitment to two international trade agreements: The Trans-Pacific Partnership consisting of eleven Pacific Rim countries; and the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.
The United Nations 2018 World Statistics reported Japan’s female labor force participation rate as 50.4%, rather than 67%. Abe’s source is unknown, but he must contend with promoting the elevation of women in the labor force in opposition to established cultural practices.
A recent article in the New York Times described the difficulty that Japan’s working mothers have in gaining employment in upper level positions. Japan’s rigid gender roles assign a disproportionate share of household chores and child care to women. The article notes, in an analysis of government data, that “women who work more than 49 hours a week typically do close to 25 hours of housework a week. Their husbands do an average of less than five,” fewer than in any of the world’s wealthiest nations. Men in professional positions are often expected to work late at the office or go out drinking with clients. Mr. Abe’s goal is “lessening the burden women shoulder.”
Abe also alluded to recent improvements in the child poverty rate. Approximately one in six people live below the poverty line, slightly higher than the United States. Japanese director Hirokazu Kore-eda depicts a Tokyo group of adults and children living as a family that shoplifts to survive. The movie, titled “Shoplifters,” won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, and has been nominated for an Oscar. Culture is a growing export for Japan.
Notwithstanding significant differences in geography and governance, China shares several similarities with post-war Japan. Like Japan in the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s, China in the 1980s, ‘90s and 2000s experienced:
- Resurrection of a broken economy aided by U.S. policy
- Close cooperation between government and industry
- Government protection against competitive imports
- Rapid growth in manufacturing for export
- Rising middle class of consumers
- Unprecedented economic growth for decades, followed by slowing
- Expansive investments in other countries
- Participation in international trade agreements
- Aging population projected to decline (1.397B in 2015 to 1.364B in 2050 to 1.020B in 2100)
- Billions of products stamped “Made in China”
More recently, in Japan’s 1990s and 2000s and China’s 2010s have in common: Fertility rate below replacement level
- Aging population and workforce
- Low percentage of migrant population
- Positive trade balance
- Rising inequality
- Rapidly increasing level of debt
The similarities suggest the prospect of lost decades, with Chinese characteristics. A recent article in Time magazine foresees a bleak future for China. Even though China’s one-child policy from 1980 to 2016 left the country with 24 million men of marrying age without prospect of finding wives, many women prefer careers over marriage as a path to security. Young people are expected to care for aging parents, and, often, grandparents. Women carry the greater burden by tradition. The Time article describes a future of “increasingly unequal society . . .and an economy crippled by unsustainable debts.”