How Might This Turn Out?
As I write this, all signs point to a Joe Biden presidency beginning January 20, 2021. Popular and electoral college votes are in Biden’s favor, and challenges to the election are all but resolved. Preparation for a transition from Republican Trump to Democrat Biden has begun.
Scrutinizing of election results has also begun, not just looking at why the polls were so far off, but what can be learned from the results. The urban-rural split between Republican and Democratic voters was evident in county-level voting patterns: President Trump led Joe Biden in the country’s least urbanized counties by a margin of 33 points; Biden led Trump in the most urbanized counties by 29 points.
The split revealed much about voters’ economic environments: According to a November 10th report from the Brookings Institution, 490 counties won by Biden account for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, while 2,534 counties won by Trump account for the other 30 percent. Urban populations are racially diverse, college-educated, and work in professional and technical industries. Rural populations are more uniformly white, less likely to have gone to college, and work in traditional industries.
In his first post-election address, Biden pledged to unify, not divide the country; to be a president “who doesn’t see red and blue states, but a United States.” But the 73 million voters who voted for Trump have reason not to trust Biden and the Democrats in Congress. Post-election analysis found Trump voters perceived the Democratic Party as radically left, tied to socialism, and not supportive of law enforcement. Biden plans to reverse some of Trump’s policies regarding trade and international agreements, which were favored by Trump voters as supportive of U.S. jobs.
To be sure, there are “progressives” in the Democratic Party promoting programs somewhat left of center. The Green New Deal, Medicare for All, and defunding police were used against Democrats in the election and are cited by some party members for limiting the party’s success in increasing representation in Congress.
But there are major concerns being addressed that are shared by voters in cities, small towns and rural areas: availability of well-paying jobs, safe neighborhoods, good education and childcare, access to healthy food, and good infrastructure. Will Congressional Republicans find common ground with the new administration on issues that clearly benefit their constituencies? Or do Republicans have more to gain in 2022 by prolonging polarization?
While there is uncertainty over what will happen, we can take comfort in what has been avoided. Before the election, Author Thomas Fischgrund wrote Trump’s Second Term: What If Donald J. Trump Had Won Reelection in 2020. As Fischgrund tells it, Trump won 45% of the popular vote but the Supreme Court’s conservative majority awarded him the victory. In 2022 Trump addressed 20% unemployment by initiating deportation of eleven million illegal aliens. Social media were censored by the new National Media Review Board. Covid-19 morphed into Covid-22. The economy fell into depression, and in 2023 a general nationwide strike was called for Labor Day.
In the election year of 2024, Russian hackers flooded social media with support for a third term for Trump. He ran and lost by a large margin but claimed fraud and refused to leave. The Supreme Court, after hearing the case, decided not to rule, saying this was a political issue and not a judicial one. Only when one of Trump’s adult children came forward and urged him to accept the will of the people did the crisis end.
Things could always be worse.