Good A. I.
If innovative technologies have historically brought increased productivity for workers, while increasing demand for labor in new sectors of the economy, why is artificial intelligence (AI) regarded with suspicion? “The Wrong Kind of AI?,” a recent paper by two economists, suggests that introduction of new technologies in the 21st century reflect a shift from developments of the last 200 years.
The authors examine why productivity growth went hand-in-hand with wage growth in the 19th and 20th centuries. “The answer is that at the same time as automation technologies are being introduced, other technological advances enable us to create new tasks in which labor has a competitive advantage.” New occupations and industries led the growth in labor demand.
By contrast, the guiding principle in current technological innovation is automation, not to increase workers’ productivity, but to replace them. This emphasis on cost-saving is legitimate business decision-making, but the authors argue that technology, and AI in particular, can be employed to complement and augment the work of human laborers. Without directing research towards innovation that generates new tasks, “the implications for labor are depressing . . . with potentially disastrous consequences for income inequality and social cohesion.”
The paper presents examples of industries in which AI applications can augment the work of human labor. In education, AI can build on the learning styles of students, optimizing the learning experience for individual students and for different subjects for a single student, building upon each student’s unique abilities. Similarly, in healthcare AI can employ a broad base of health data to “significantly empower nurses, technicians and other healthcare providers to offer a wider range of services and more real-time advice, diagnosis and treatment.”
Others see opportunity for improving human decision-making through a branch of AI called natural language processing and generation to redefine how humans and computers interact. Overall, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts AI-generated job growth in a wide range of occupations including forensic science, finance, technical writing and customer service.
The authors of the paper are not alone in reasoning that AI can create jobs as well as replace them. Consultancy PwC, Singularity University and the World Economic Forum, among others, have written of AI’s potential to create jobs. But they also warn of the need for government and businesses to proactively plan and implement a path for the evolving labor market.
As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) “The Future of Work 2019” points out, advances in technology are concurrent with globalization’s reshuffling of jobs and aging of the population and work force. With so much of the work force in transition, “labor market disparities could increase … unless determined policy action is taken to ensure a more equal sharing of the costs of structural adjustment to the world of work.”
The OECD supports policies that assure workers have adequate employment protections; promote collective bargaining; strengthen adult learning; and protect disadvantaged groups. The OECD agenda challenges government and industry to fashion a future of work that generates more and better jobs for all workers.