Fifty Years in China
On February 21, 1972, President Richard Nixon arrived in Beijing, the first U.S. president to visit the Chinese mainland, accompanied by National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. After a weeklong visit, the two countries issued the Shanghai Communique, stating positions on a number of issues, including their joint opposition to the Soviet Union. Over the next 45 years, every president except Jimmy Carter (who dispatched his National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski) traveled to China at least once, either on state visits or for meetings.
Relations in the ‘70s, ‘80s, and ‘90s were generally positive, with the U.S. under President Reagan agreeing to allow China to purchase U.S. military equipment, and under President Clinton granting China normal trade relations. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. U.S.-China trade increased from $95 million in 1972 to over $120 billion in 2001. Tension over U.S. relations with Taiwan surfaced from time to time, resulting in temporary strains in diplomatic relations.
As U.S. and China economies grew increasingly interdependent, the U.S. consistently imported more than it exported. Annual balance of payments eventually exceeded $300 billion by 2012, making China the largest holder of U.S. debt – or treasuries. As tensions rose over trade, geopolitics, and human rights, President Obama and President Xi met in California and agreed to cooperate on regional and global issues, including climate change.
The Trump Administration’s China policy was disastrous. From both honoring and violating the One China Policy, and from building trust with Xi, then imposing sweeping tariffs, and then relaxing them, the Administration ended with both countries closing consulates, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declaring the end of engagement with the Chinese Communist Party in July 2020.
The new Biden Administration continued some Trump tariffs and sanctions of Chinese officials over human rights issues. Yet the two sides agreed to a joint statement at the November 2021 UN climate summit to cooperate on combating climate change over the next decade. Following the summit, China’s climate envoy stated, “There is more agreement between the United States and China than divergence.”
As 2022 began, China saw a fragmented West, suffering from inconsistent U.S. foreign policy, lack of cohesion in Europe and low standing of NATO. China could claim a rising international profile and strong competition for world leadership. Then February 24 happened: China was surprised by the brutality of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after declaring its friendship with Russia three weeks earlier at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. David Leonhardt wrote in the New York Times:
The war is arguably the most problematic international development for China in years… It has unified much of the rest of the world — including the U.S., the E.U., Britain and Japan — in support of Ukraine, with a diplomatic boldness that these countries have often lacked in recent years. China’s leaders, on the other hand, are in a partnership with the world’s new villain, Vladimir Putin.
China’s partnering with Russia over the war in Ukraine is a rational counterweight to the democratic bloc. A recent article in The Guardian recognized “the leaders of Russia and China share a common set of security grievances against the US-led bloc, fearing both internal subversion and external limitations on their regional aspirations.” But unlike Putin who wages war against perceived security threats, Xi “interweaves the interests of the Chinese people with pursuit of the global common good.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fueled a transitional stage in geopolitics, leaving China with a decision to be made. In terms of its political economy, China has far more to gain from contributing to international stability in cooperation with western countries than allying with a Russia that, as described in a wide-ranging New York Times article, is incentivized “to foment political instability.”
On February 28, 2022, the 50th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique, Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China, former U.S. National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, and officials of both countries met at the Jinjiang Hotel where the Communique had been signed. Minister Wang spoke of the successes achieved by the two countries over the five decades, “by seeking common ground while reserving differences.”
Minister Wang also acknowledged outstanding challenges in the U.S.-China relationship. The war in Ukraine provides an opening for President Biden to request a meeting with President Xi to reaffirm the two countries’ support for the One China policy and the territorial integrity of sovereign countries. With a reset in their relations, the two countries could cooperate in developing new vaccines, reversing climate change, and enforcing principles of the UN Charter.