Don’t Write Off the 118th Congress, Yet
Thanks to an inauspicious beginning to the 118th Congress, the consensus among many observers is, don’t expect much from the 2023-2024 session. If fifteen votes were required before agreement was reached on a Speaker of the House, how can it be expected to tackle the debt ceiling, inflation, immigration, or anything else of consequence?
There is another angle from which to view the current state of American politics, and that is in terms of momentum. The fact that the 2022 mid-term elections took an unexpected turn is widely agreed. But the context in which the mid-terms occurred suggests the turn began in the months prior.
A retrospective of President Joe Biden’s first two years in office comprises significant legislative successes, some with surprising levels of bipartisan support. Biden signed five Democratic-sponsored acts that received Republican votes: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on November 25, 2021, Safer Communities Act (including gun background checks) on June 25, 2022, CHIPS and Science Act (including support for domestic manufacturing) on August 9, 2022, Respect for Marriage Act (approving same-sex marriage) on December 13, 2022, and Electoral Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act on December 23, 2022.
The level of support varied widely among the 215 Republicans in the House of Representatives, from as few as 4% voting for Electoral Reform, to a high of 23% for Respect for Marriage. The support from the 50 Republican Senators was higher, from 25% for Respect for Marriage, and 38% for Electoral Reform, to 39% for Infrastructure Investment. Votes for each act and both House and Senate members appear in Chart 1. Senators are elected for six years, giving them less anxiety over quick retribution, and credit or blame for a larger body of work. Representatives in the House run for re-election every two years, so the calendar is more of an issue for them when voting.
Chart 1 – Click to enlarge
Chart 1 displays the names of Republican congressmen who voted for each of the five Democratic-sponsored acts, and when their current terms end. For Republican senators it shows if they were re-elected and have terms ending in 2028 (in red font), if their terms end in 2024 or 2026 (in blue font), or if they did not return to Congress in 2022 (in black font). If not returning, the reason is listed, which, in all cases for senators, is retirement. For Republicans in the House of Representatives, members who were re-elected are shown with end of current term of 2024 (in red font), and reason for not returning in black font. Three Republican representatives who did not return to Congress lost their primary elections; one representative was defeated in the mid-term election.
All representatives who retired had announced they would not run in the 2022 mid-term elections. The chart leaves open questions of what motivated these retiring Republican members of Congress to vote for the five acts. Did retiring give senators and representatives freedom to vote conscience rather than party ideology? Similarly, did years remaining on their terms free senators from possible retribution? Eight Republican senators voted for one or more acts and successfully ran for re-election.
There were a total of 46 representatives who voted for one or more of the five acts and won re-election. The Respect for Marriage Act received the most Republican votes: 47 voted for that act and 37 of them were re-elected. Over two-thirds of Americans support same-sex marriage, so arguably, voting was less motivated by ideology and more by public opinion. Only one other act, the Chips & Science Act, received more than 20 Republican House votes, and only half of them were re-elected. The act is to benefit U.S.-based manufacturing, especially for advanced semiconductors. Republican Party leadership urged members to vote against the bill, partly in retaliation against Democrats for pushing through reconciliation on a separate bill at about the same time.
The Safe Communities Act, which includes gun background checks, received only nine Republican House member votes, even though 90% of Americans favor background checks. Party ideology probably explains why seven of the nine did not return to Congress. That act received far more Republican support in the Senate. The Infrastructure Investment Act received the greatest Republican support among senators; 16 of the 19 who voted for the act returned for the next Congress, including four who were re-elected. Few Republicans disagree with the need for massive investment in the nations roads, bridges, and transit systems. Opposition focused on what the act will add to the national debt.
Chart 2 – Click to enlarge
Chart 2 lists three major pieces of legislation passed by the 117th Congress without a single Republican voting in favor. The American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law on March 11, 2021, included funding for vaccinations, Covid relief for schools, families, and unemployed persons, and for lower health insurance premiums. The Build Back Better Act, signed November 19, 2021, funded programs addressing climate change and renewable energy, childcare and universal pre-Kindergarten, Medicare and public housing. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 16, 2022, funded energy security and climate change, extended Affordable Care Act subsidies, negotiated drug pricing, and a 15% corporate minimum tax.
Democrats had majorities in both houses of the 117th Congress. The 118th Congress is split with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives and Democrats in control of the Senate. That difference will make passage of any major legislation less likely. But losses by far-right candidates in the 2020 mid-term election, and Republican defections from leadership directives, may foretell further bipartisanship. As the benefits of laws passed in 2021 and 2022 begin to take form in bridges, wind farms, and chip factories, Biden will have many opportunities to preside over infrastructure dedications and factory openings. Many of the Republicans senators and representatives who voted against that legislation are lining up for shares of those benefits for their districts.
Dana Milbank characterized the Republican agenda for the House of Representatives by citing their priorities mentioned by leadership in an interview by Fox News: Inflation was mentioned only once, jobs once, economy twice, and investigations 20 times, including FBI, DOJ, China, Covid-19, Fauci, and Hunter Biden’s laptop. Extending the admittedly limited bipartisanship of the 117th Congress would be far more beneficial.