Did the 2020 Pandemic Change Everything? Part 1 of 2

“This changes everything” is a phrase often used in marketing to describe some new product or discovery. COVID-19 truly changed life for every person on earth in a matter of months. The pandemic changed every aspect of daily life. This list suggests the enormity of the changes. It is long, and (I am sure) it is not complete. More than an inventory of 2020 events, this is a menu for how to prepare for the next pandemic. It would be a mistake to refer to COVID-19 as a once-in-a-century pandemic.

Science

The COVID-19 crisis re-established the value of expertise in matters of science. Yet, as of early December, 27% of Americans said they would not get a free COVID-19 vaccination. Refusal to accept scientific advice translated into politicization of the field of science. Scientists were challenged by groups weighing economic interests above public health concerns, and data privacy concerns above safety issues. Questioning scientific findings evolved into some of the year’s many conspiracy theories: the virus was intentionally started; the virus is part of a Chinese communist plot against the West; 5G technology rollout was to blame for the pandemic; the virus was a hoax.

Medical Research

The speed with which medical research developed vaccines for COVID-19 bodes well in terms of preparedness and resilience for future viruses. The failure of the market-based system for developing medicines and vaccines led to reassessment of a direct role for government the process. Pharmaceutical companies balk at the risk of assuming high costs of research and development, leaving it to the Department of Health and Human Services to fund and coordinate development of therapeutics and vaccines.

Technology

Consumer and business digital adoption moved five years forward in about eight weeks, according to McKinsey Company. Working from home, online learning, digital payment and online shopping were among existing trends that accelerated during the pandemic and are likely to continue. In health care, a British doctor told the New York Times, the British national health system’s switch to remote consultation comprised a decade of change accomplished in a week. Adopting digital technology and integrating it into policy and health care enabled some countries to maintain low mortality rates. Strategies included surveillance, testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

Business

Attempting to prevent business failures the government stepped in with financial support, changing the relationship between business and government. Concern for workers rather than shareholders guided government action. Businesses replaced some overseas suppliers with manufacturers of essential equipment closer to home. The long-term trend toward online shopping accelerated; locked-down bricks-and-mortar businesses turned to Amazon and Shopify for delivery service. Restaurants were particularly hard-hit by social distancing restrictions; over 100,000 closed permanently. Others turned to carry-out or outdoor dining. As the pandemic made work from home a necessity, businesses and employees alike considered the pros and cons of making the change permanent. Employees could be hired from outside the geographic area in which businesses were located.

Workplaces

Working from home was not only accepted out of necessity, but was embraced by companies, especially in technology and finance, as a way forward. The reduced demand for office space caused a glut in some markets, and housing in acceptable commuting distances was devalued in favor of suburban and rural locations. The 40% of U.S. workers who can work from home saved on average an hour a day spent commuting. The decline in daily commuters had a negative impact on those workers who support and serve office workers: transportation, food service, cleaning and maintenance, retail and personal care industries.

World Trade

World economic output is estimated to be at least 7% lower than it would have been. Disruption of international commerce and travel set back cross-border trading; in May 2020, the volume of goods traded globally was 18% below the level a year earlier. Disruption of international supply lines has also negatively impacted e-commerce for goods and services, in terms of delivery delays or outright cancellation of orders. Demand for personal protective equipment for health care workers exceeded national supplies, leading governments to offer incentives to bring production ashore. The U.S. Defense Production Act authorized the president to prioritize domestic production of critical medical supplies and equipment.

Government

Trust in government was eroded by conspiracy theories claiming the pandemic was a hoax. Yet federal government action was required in numerous areas: Health and safety, transportation, education, economy, cybersecurity, scams and fraud, broadband, commerce, immigration, international cooperation, and others. A pandemic response document prepared during the George W. Bush administration provided some guidance to the current crisis, but much of it was ignored. Stimulus spending in support of jobs and families reset expectations about the role of government. But the poor response of government to the pandemic exposed the need for new investment in health and public services management.

The next Fifty Year Perspective blog post will cover changes due to COVID-19 in Health Care, Equality, Education, Hobbies and Home-bound Activities, Entertainment, Community and Climate Change.

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