After Covid-19: Opportunities and Threats
Although the threats of Covid-19 are widely communicated, a fair number of influencers express optimism for the future. Call the optimism a mixture of “Don’t let a good crisis go to waste” and “It’s time to reaffirm our values.” A vision of a better world does not have to be defeated by acquiescence.
The threats to “normal life” are well-known. Will air travel and all forms of mass transportation remain risky? Are malls, large entertainment venues and conventions and trade shows to be replaced by digital life? Can professional sports be played successfully behind closed doors? Are office buildings crammed with hundreds of workers per floor a thing of the past? How many years will it take to recover the millions of jobs lost?
Will masks become a standard part of wardrobes? Can restaurants survive with 50% reductions in seating? Must we end handshakes, hugs and blowing out birthday candles? (“You’re spitting on the cake!”) Is increased inequality inevitable? Must crises lead to competition among nations, or are interdependence and cooperation necessary?
With the above as a partial accounting of what the future could hold, the outpouring of calls for change for the better is not surprising. The editorial board of the Financial Times, one of the world’s most respected business newspapers, calls for a new “social contract that benefits everyone.” Governments must take more active roles in the economy. “Radical reforms – reversing the prevailing policy direction of the last four decades – will need to be put on the table… Redistribution will again be on the agenda; the privileges of the elderly and wealthy in question. Policies until recently considered eccentric, such as universal basic income and wealth taxes, will have to be in the mix.”
What the Financial Times and others are demanding is a reassessment of values. What can we learn when some of our lowest-paid workers – in grocery stores, health care, public transportation – are considered “vital professionals?” The public out-pouring of support for teachers and “healthcare heroes” who served selflessly attests to those values that we profess, even when the existing social contract does not support those values.
The new social contract demands infrastructure investment – to boost the economy, employ displaced workers and improve access to jobs for all workers. S&P Global, a provider of public financial information, recommends a 10-year, $2.1 trillion infrastructure investment which is estimated to create over two million jobs over the next four years. Investment in infrastructure for technology has the additional function of reducing inequality. Universal access to broadband is essential for every student and their families.
The underperformance of the healthcare industry in preparedness for the pandemic exposed underfunding for research, medical technology, international cooperation and supply chain, as well as the quality and coverage of medical services. Not least among shortcomings for international cooperation is addressing climate change. It is an issue from which no one will be able to self-isolate, and global unity cannot wait.
There is also an international dimension to emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic. A recent article in Forbes Magazine highlighted the inadequacy of 20th century institutions for the 21st century. “Prior to this crisis, cracks had already appeared in every global institution. Economic growth institutions that have been core to the modern financial system for 100 years – such as Central Banks, the IMF and the World Bank – have been criticized for growth policies that inadvertently led to greater inequality in recent decades.” As the 1944 Bretton Woods Summit defined the institutions that led the world out of war, the Forbes article suggests a summit charged with creating institutions that function more effectively in the 21st century.
Thus far government response to Covid-19 has been chaotic and disjointed. It took a crisis for us to recognize what honest and informed leadership looks like. The agenda for new leadership is headlined “Build Back Better.”