Who Is Helped by Proposed Legislation?

Changes to capitalism and the social contract have been reviewed in two recent blog posts to Fifty Year Perspective. With its laser focus on profits, capitalism is being challenged to acknowledge the harm it has imposed on global warming, human rights violations in international trade, and inequality.  At the same time, changes due to globalization, automation, global warming, and population aging are preventing large sectors of the population from sharing in the social contract.

Legislation currently under discussion in Washington, DC is targeted to address these same changes. Beneficiaries of legislative proposals would include families below the poverty level, families with children, unemployed or low income workers, less educated, and elderly. The racial composition of these subsets of the U.S. population follows a pattern.

The percent of Whites in the population is higher than the percent of Whites in each of these population subsets. In 2019, for example, 72% of the total population was White, but only 60% of the population below the poverty level was White. At the same time, 13% of the population was Black, but 22% of the population below the poverty level was Black.

However, when considering population numbers rather than percentages, Whites outnumber Blacks. The population living below the poverty level included 23.8 million Whites and 8.6 million Blacks. Thus the benefits envisioned in anti-poverty legislation accrue to many more Whites than Blacks. The pattern is the same for other subsets of the population:

  • Families below poverty level: 4.1 million White; 1.6 million Black
  • Population 16 and over unemployed: 11.9 million White; 2.5 million Black
  • Population 25 and over with less than high school education: 16.1 million White; 3.5 million Black
  • Female headed households with own children under 18: 4.5 million White; 2.1 million Black
  • Population over age 50: 82.4 million White; 11.1 million Black

A recent Pew Research Center study reported characteristics of registered voters in 2019, the same year as the population data. Population was divided between Republican or Republican-leaning and Democrat or Democrat-leaning. Among Republican/leaning voters 35% had a high school education or less. For Democrat/leaning voters, 28% had a high school education or less. The percent of voters aged 50 or over comprised 56% of Republican/leaning voters, vs 50% for Democrat/leaning voters. Republican/leaning voters were 81% White and 5% Black; Democrat/leaning voters were 59% White and 19% Black.

At the state level, Republican-dominated states fare worse on various economic measures. Compared to how states voted in the 2020 presidential election:

  • 11 of 12 states with highest poverty rate in 2019, and 17 of the highest 25, voted Republican.
  • 10 of the worst 12 state economies in 2018, and 16 of the worst 25, voted Republican.
  • 11 of the lowest 12 median household incomes in 2017, and 18 out of the lowest 25, voted Republican.
  • 21 of the 25 states voting Republican also had Republican governors and state legislatures.
  • 15 of the 25 states voting Democrat also had Democrat governors and state legislatures.

Post-pandemic legislation improving education from pre-K through retraining displaced workers, aiding low-income households, the unemployed and elderly, eradicating poverty, and supporting economic development through infrastructure investment would disproportionately benefit White Republican/leaning voters and, in lesser numbers, Black Democrat/leaning voters. It would also disproportionately benefit states that voted Republican in the 2020 election.

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