2020 Census Count Confirms Social Trends
Although arriving four months later than normal, the United States finally learned its 2020 Census population count. With 331,449,281 people, population increased 7.35%. Only one decade in the country’s history, the 1930s, was the rate of growth lower – by eight-hundredths of one percent.
The data is not yet available by age, race and gender, but it is available by state. The five fastest-growing states, in order, were Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota and Nevada. Three states, Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia, lost population. Broadly, faster growing states were in the South and West, while states in the North and East grew more slowly, continuing a long-term trend.
Population increase or decrease is determined by four numbers – births, deaths, in-migration and out-migration. The first three are reliably reported. Out-migration is not reported in the United States, but many countries periodically estimate the number of U.S. citizens living in their countries.
Slowing population growth was not a surprise, as it conforms to recent trends in births, deaths and in-migration. The number of people legally entering the U.S. has been decreasing since the mid-2010s. Government restrictions during the Trump administration made an impact, followed by extreme cutbacks in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The last official figure, for the 2019 fiscal year, was 1,032,000.
After reaching a peak of 4.3 million births in 2007 just before the Great Recession, by 2020 the number had decreased over 16% to 3.6 million. The average number of births per woman of child-bearing age, called the fertility rate, must be no lower than 2.1 births for the population to remain stable. The current fertility rate is 1.78.
While births are decreasing, deaths are increasing, by about 1.6% annually over the last decade. Births still exceed deaths, but by 2019 that net gain had dropped below 900,000. That figure is called the net natural increase – births minus deaths. In-migration in 2017, 2018 and 2019 exceeded one million. Thus, without considering any out-migration, the total population would be shrinking had there been no in-migration. These patterns were discussed in an earlier blog post.
As Washington debates long-term programs supporting families and individuals, awareness of these social trends could not be more timely. In a study done for the New York Times in 2018, researchers asked why Americans are having fewer babies. More than half the respondents said they would have fewer children than their parents. “About a quarter of the respondents who had children or planned to said they had fewer or expected to have fewer than they wanted.”
The most frequent reason given was the high cost of childcare, cited by 64% of respondents, and economic concerns were four of the top five reasons. “Young people have record student debt, many graduated in a recession and many can’t afford homes.” Over a third of respondents mentioned struggling with work-life balance and inadequate family leave or no family leave at all.
Although all the details are not yet available, the 2020 Census calls attention to the current policy debates affecting migration, families and workers.